2017年(nian)春季市場(chang)在(zai)糧價(jia)低迷和農戶對種植(zhi)結(jie)構調整思(si)量中(zhong)徐緩開(kai)啟。截至2月24日全國種子(zi)鋪貨和市場(chang)零售(shou)終端信(xin)息觀(guan)察(cha)點(dian)顯(xian)(xian)示，種子(zi)供應充(chong)足，銷(xiao)售(shou)品種多，作物分(fen)化(hua)明顯(xian)(xian)，價(jia)格漲跌不一(yi)。預計在(zai)農產品價(jia)格形成機制市場(chang)化(hua)和種子(zi)總體供大于求的背景下，種子(zi)市場(chang)競爭(zheng)將比去年更加激烈，中(zhong)后期價(jia)格可能出(chu)現一(yi)定波動。

     一、玉米(mi)

     非(fei)優勢(shi)區(qu)面積調減趨勢(shi)明顯，優勢(shi)區(qu)觀望氣氛濃厚，市場低(di)迷，價格總體(ti)走低(di)，種子供過(guo)于(yu)求。

     市場啟動晚、銷(xiao)售進度慢。東華(hua)北和(he)黃淮海區(qu)，農民對調整(zheng)種植作物猶豫觀(guan)望(wang)，購種時期推遲，盡管種子(zi)企業、經銷(xiao)商(shang)和(he)零(ling)售商(shang)推銷(xiao)力度大于(yu)往(wang)年(nian)，種子(zi)銷(xiao)售終端市場依然(ran)冷清，目前種子(zi)入戶率不足30%，明顯滯(zhi)后往(wang)年(nian)。

     供遠大于(yu)求(qiu)、品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)數量多。種(zhong)(zhong)子有效供給總量在20億(yi)公斤以上，遠遠超過11億(yi)公斤的用種(zhong)(zhong)需(xu)求(qiu)。市(shi)場(chang)上新審定和同(tong)一(yi)生態區引種(zhong)(zhong)的品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)數量猛增，銷售(shou)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)總數高達1500多個，農民(min)選種(zhong)(zhong)難度加大，市(shi)場(chang)競爭激烈。

     品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)差異大(da)、區(qu)域(yu)分(fen)化明(ming)顯(xian)(xian)。品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)間價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)分(fen)化較大(da)，以公斤(jin)計量的(de)(de)(de)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)15-70元/公斤(jin)、以袋計量畝(mu)用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)30-80元/袋。東(dong)華(hua)北春玉米區(qu)，受玉米低價(jia)收購影響(xiang)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)下滑(hua)趨勢明(ming)顯(xian)(xian)。在剛啟動的(de)(de)(de)吉林種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市場上，一(yi)些經(jing)銷商(shang)為降低庫存、盤活(huo)資金進行甩貨，對(dui)(dui)一(yi)些品(pin)(pin)牌品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)銷售價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)形成壓制。還處(chu)在種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)鋪貨階段的(de)(de)(de)黑(hei)龍(long)江，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)有20%-30%的(de)(de)(de)下滑(hua)幅(fu)度。遼(liao)寧(ning)早熟區(qu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)為30.34元/公斤(jin)，同比(bi)下降6.90%。市場主導品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)先玉335、京科968、鄭單958，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)分(fen)別(bie)(bie)為57元/袋·畝(mu)、40元/袋·畝(mu)、35元/袋·畝(mu)，均出(chu)現5%-10%的(de)(de)(de)下滑(hua)幅(fu)度。西南春玉米區(qu)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)銷售相對(dui)(dui)活(huo)躍。四川、重慶、云(yun)南種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)分(fen)別(bie)(bie)為31.13元/公斤(jin)、35.82元/公斤(jin)、29.94元/公斤(jin)，同比(bi)基本(ben)持平(ping)。

     二、水稻

     種子(zi)(zi)市場啟動正常(chang)、運(yun)行(xing)平穩，但雜交稻種子(zi)(zi)中后期(qi)可能出現價(jia)格下滑波動。

     常規(gui)稻(dao)。北方稻(dao)區(qu)種(zhong)子零售(shou)終端市(shi)場(chang)種(zhong)子供應充足(zu)，企(qi)業(ye)鋪貨基本穩定，鋪貨進度與去年同(tong)期基本一(yi)致，預計有(you)水源等條件的(de)(de)(de)玉米(mi)主產(chan)區(qu)，農(nong)民將設(she)法改種(zhong)水稻(dao)，因(yin)此水稻(dao)面積將有(you)所擴(kuo)大，種(zhong)子市(shi)場(chang)價格將穩中有(you)升。南方稻(dao)區(qu)，對早(zao)熟、直播(bo)及優(you)質種(zhong)子特別是糯(nuo)質品種(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)購(gou)買需(xu)求旺盛，品質優(you)良的(de)(de)(de)品種(zhong)批發價格有(you)所上升，普(pu)通(tong)品種(zhong)略有(you)降價。在零售(shou)市(shi)場(chang)活躍的(de)(de)(de)廣西，優(you)質常規(gui)稻(dao)種(zhong)子價格28.41元/公(gong)斤，同(tong)比增(zeng)長11.35%

     雜交(jiao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)。零售(shou)終端市(shi)場(chang)如期開(kai)始啟動。種子(zi)(zi)(zi)供應(ying)充足(zu)，可供種子(zi)(zi)(zi)總量(liang)3.6億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，超過2.4～2.5億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)的需求量(liang)。種子(zi)(zi)(zi)價格基本(ben)穩(wen)定，平(ping)均售(shou)價63.84元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)。華(hua)南早稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區，由(you)于去年大田(tian)種植受災補種，企(qi)業庫存壓力明顯減少，加(jia)(jia)之種子(zi)(zi)(zi)生(sheng)產成本(ben)持續上漲，種子(zi)(zi)(zi)平(ping)均售(shou)價68.52元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，穩(wen)中(zhong)略增1.04%。中(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區，種子(zi)(zi)(zi)平(ping)均售(shou)價90.89元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，同(tong)比(bi)基本(ben)持平(ping)。其中(zhong)，福建97.70元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，同(tong)比(bi)增長2.56%；廣(guang)西84.5元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)、湖南81.69元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)、四(si)川91.77元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)、云南71.91元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)、重慶92.97元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，同(tong)比(bi)持平(ping)；安徽(hui)95.82元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，同(tong)比(bi)下降2.37%。預計隨著(zhu)中(zhong)晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)種子(zi)(zi)(zi)市(shi)場(chang)的活躍(yue)，雜交(jiao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)種子(zi)(zi)(zi)將有(you)小幅波動，主(zhu)要原(yuan)因是(shi)中(zhong)晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)雜交(jiao)種子(zi)(zi)(zi)2.8億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)的供應(ying)量(liang)遠(yuan)大于需求量(liang)及優質常規稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)替代雜交(jiao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)增加(jia)(jia)趨勢將壓減雜交(jiao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)種子(zi)(zi)(zi)銷售(shou)。

     三(san)、棉花

     長(chang)江和(he)(he)黃河(he)流域棉(mian)區種(zhong)子(zi)終端銷售市場(chang)零星(xing)啟(qi)動(dong)，在(zai)2016年棉(mian)花收購價格上調(diao)和(he)(he)棉(mian)地(di)種(zhong)植補貼(tie)帶動(dong)下(xia)，農(nong)戶繼續減種(zhong)棉(mian)花勢頭(tou)得到遏(e)制，種(zhong)子(zi)市場(chang)呈現好轉跡象(xiang)，將有力緩(huan)解嚴重的庫存壓力。當(dang)前安徽雜交棉(mian)種(zhong)子(zi)平(ping)均售價240.89元/公斤(jin)，同(tong)比下(xia)降3.32%。湖南雜交棉(mian)種(zhong)子(zi)161.29元/公斤(jin)，同(tong)比持平(ping)。山(shan)東常規棉(mian)20元/公斤(jin)，主要銷售品種(zhong)是中早(zao)熟、抗病、抗蟲、高產(chan)易摘(zhai)的農(nong)興系列、魯(lu)棉(mian)研系列及河(he)北(bei)冀棉(mian)等系列。新疆(jiang)棉(mian)區市場(chang)目前尚未啟(qi)動(dong)。

     四、大(da)豆

     受(shou)結(jie)構調整政策、大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)玉米比價提高(gao)(gao)后玉米種(zhong)(zhong)植效(xiao)益優勢趨弱等因素影響，農(nong)(nong)民種(zhong)(zhong)植大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)積極性(xing)明(ming)(ming)顯提高(gao)(gao)。東北大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)區，市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)種(zhong)(zhong)量充(chong)足，銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)形勢較好(hao)，銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)進度明(ming)(ming)顯快于往(wang)年(nian)，價格上漲(zhang)明(ming)(ming)顯，大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)部分(fen)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)生產(chan)商手里已無存貨。鐮刀彎地區四五積溫帶市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)已經明(ming)(ming)朗，小規模種(zhong)(zhong)植農(nong)(nong)戶(hu)開始改種(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)，種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)形成玉米冷清、大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)較旺的(de)冰(bing)火兩重天景象(xiang)。黃淮海夏大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)區，由于新(xin)《種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)法》對種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)“一(yi)袋一(yi)碼(ma)”要求(qiu)、企業需要重新(xin)設計(ji)包(bao)裝，大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)鋪(pu)貨緩慢，種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)批發(fa)價格高(gao)(gao)于往(wang)年(nian)，農(nong)(nong)戶(hu)購種(zhong)(zhong)積極性(xing)增高(gao)(gao)，中熟、高(gao)(gao)產(chan)、抗(kang)倒伏(fu)、落(luo)黃性(xing)好(hao)、成熟不裂莢、適合(he)機械化的(de)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)受(shou)到市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)青睞。

     五、花(hua)生與(yu)雜糧雜豆

     黃淮海區在(zai)花(hua)生種植效益相對較高、部分(fen)玉米改(gai)種花(hua)生的(de)帶(dai)動下(xia)，花(hua)生種子市(shi)場活躍(yue)，種子需求(qiu)量(liang)隨(sui)種植面積擴大(da)而增加，春播(bo)種子零售價格同比去年小幅上升，夏播(bo)種子企業正(zheng)在(zai)積極鋪貨(huo)，種子供應充足(zu)，預計零售價格穩中(zhong)有增。山西(xi)、陜西(xi)、內蒙、寧夏等區域，優質雜糧雜豆面積有明顯上升的(de)勢頭，其種子市(shi)場比較活躍(yue)。