2017年春(chun)季市(shi)場(chang)在(zai)糧價低(di)迷(mi)和農(nong)戶對(dui)種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)結構調整思量(liang)中徐緩(huan)開啟。截至2月24日全國種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)鋪貨和市(shi)場(chang)零售(shou)終端信息觀察(cha)點顯示，種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)供(gong)(gong)應充足(zu)，銷(xiao)售(shou)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)多，作(zuo)物分化明(ming)顯，價格漲跌不(bu)一。預計(ji)在(zai)農(nong)產品(pin)價格形成(cheng)機制市(shi)場(chang)化和種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)總體供(gong)(gong)大于求的背(bei)景下，種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)市(shi)場(chang)競爭將(jiang)比去年更加激烈，中后期(qi)價格可能出現一定波動。

     一、玉米

     非優勢(shi)區(qu)(qu)面積調減趨勢(shi)明顯，優勢(shi)區(qu)(qu)觀望(wang)氣氛濃厚，市(shi)場低迷(mi)，價格總(zong)體走低，種(zhong)子供過于求(qiu)。

     市場啟動晚、銷(xiao)售(shou)進度(du)慢。東華北(bei)和黃淮海區，農民對調整種(zhong)植作物猶豫觀望，購種(zhong)時期推遲，盡(jin)管種(zhong)子企業、經(jing)銷(xiao)商和零售(shou)商推銷(xiao)力(li)度(du)大于往年(nian)，種(zhong)子銷(xiao)售(shou)終端(duan)市場依然冷清(qing)，目(mu)前(qian)種(zhong)子入戶率不足30%，明顯滯后(hou)往年(nian)。

     供遠(yuan)大(da)于求(qiu)、品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)數量多(duo)。種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子有效供給總(zong)量在(zai)20億(yi)公斤以(yi)上(shang)，遠(yuan)遠(yuan)超過11億(yi)公斤的(de)用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)需求(qiu)。市(shi)場(chang)上(shang)新審定(ding)和(he)同(tong)一生(sheng)態區引(yin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)數量猛增，銷售(shou)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)總(zong)數高達(da)1500多(duo)個，農民選種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)難度加大(da)，市(shi)場(chang)競爭(zheng)激烈。

     品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)差異大、區域分化(hua)明顯。品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)間(jian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)分化(hua)較大，以公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)計量的種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子15-70元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)、以袋(dai)(dai)(dai)計量畝用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子30-80元(yuan)(yuan)/袋(dai)(dai)(dai)。東(dong)華北春玉(yu)(yu)米區，受玉(yu)(yu)米低(di)價(jia)(jia)(jia)收購(gou)影響(xiang)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)下(xia)(xia)(xia)滑趨勢明顯。在剛啟動(dong)的吉林種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子市場上(shang)，一(yi)些經銷商為(wei)降低(di)庫存、盤活資金進行(xing)甩貨(huo)，對一(yi)些品牌品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)銷售價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)形成壓制。還處在種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子鋪(pu)貨(huo)階段的黑龍江(jiang)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)有20%-30%的下(xia)(xia)(xia)滑幅度。遼(liao)寧早(zao)熟區種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)為(wei)30.34元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，同(tong)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降6.90%。市場主導品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)先玉(yu)(yu)335、京科968、鄭單958，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)分別為(wei)57元(yuan)(yuan)/袋(dai)(dai)(dai)·畝、40元(yuan)(yuan)/袋(dai)(dai)(dai)·畝、35元(yuan)(yuan)/袋(dai)(dai)(dai)·畝，均出現(xian)5%-10%的下(xia)(xia)(xia)滑幅度。西南(nan)春玉(yu)(yu)米區，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子銷售相對活躍。四川、重慶、云南(nan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)分別為(wei)31.13元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)、35.82元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)、29.94元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，同(tong)比(bi)基本持平。

     二、水稻

     種子市場啟動(dong)正常、運行(xing)平穩，但雜(za)交稻(dao)種子中后期(qi)可能(neng)出(chu)現價格(ge)下(xia)滑波動(dong)。

     常規(gui)稻。北方稻區(qu)種(zhong)子零售(shou)終(zhong)端(duan)市場(chang)(chang)種(zhong)子供應(ying)充足，企業鋪(pu)貨基本穩定，鋪(pu)貨進度與去年同期(qi)基本一致，預計有(you)(you)水(shui)源等條件的玉米主產區(qu)，農民(min)將(jiang)設(she)法改種(zhong)水(shui)稻，因(yin)此水(shui)稻面積將(jiang)有(you)(you)所擴大，種(zhong)子市場(chang)(chang)價(jia)(jia)格將(jiang)穩中有(you)(you)升(sheng)。南方稻區(qu)，對(dui)早熟、直(zhi)播及優質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)子特(te)別是糯質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)種(zhong)的購買需求(qiu)旺盛，品(pin)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)優良的品(pin)種(zhong)批發價(jia)(jia)格有(you)(you)所上升(sheng)，普通品(pin)種(zhong)略有(you)(you)降價(jia)(jia)。在(zai)零售(shou)市場(chang)(chang)活躍的廣(guang)西，優質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)常規(gui)稻種(zhong)子價(jia)(jia)格28.41元/公(gong)斤，同比增(zeng)長11.35%

     雜(za)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)稻(dao)。零售(shou)終(zhong)端市場如期(qi)開始(shi)啟(qi)動。種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)供應(ying)充足，可供種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)總量3.6億(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，超(chao)過2.4～2.5億(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)的需(xu)求量。種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)價格基本(ben)穩(wen)定，平(ping)均(jun)售(shou)價63.84元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)。華(hua)南早稻(dao)區(qu)，由(you)于去年大田種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植受災補種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，企業(ye)庫存(cun)壓(ya)力明顯減少，加(jia)(jia)之種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)生產成本(ben)持(chi)續上漲，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)平(ping)均(jun)售(shou)價68.52元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，穩(wen)中(zhong)略(lve)增(zeng)(zeng)1.04%。中(zhong)稻(dao)區(qu)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)平(ping)均(jun)售(shou)價90.89元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，同比基本(ben)持(chi)平(ping)。其(qi)中(zhong)，福(fu)建97.70元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，同比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)2.56%；廣西84.5元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)、湖南81.69元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)、四川91.77元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)、云南71.91元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)、重慶92.97元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，同比持(chi)平(ping)；安徽(hui)95.82元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，同比下降2.37%。預(yu)計隨著中(zhong)晚(wan)稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市場的活躍，雜(za)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)將(jiang)(jiang)有小幅波動，主要原因是中(zhong)晚(wan)稻(dao)雜(za)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)2.8億(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)的供應(ying)量遠(yuan)大于需(xu)求量及優質常規稻(dao)替代雜(za)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)稻(dao)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)趨勢將(jiang)(jiang)壓(ya)減雜(za)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)銷售(shou)。

     三、棉花

     長江和(he)(he)黃河(he)流域(yu)棉(mian)(mian)區(qu)種(zhong)子終端銷(xiao)售市(shi)場零星啟(qi)動(dong)(dong)，在2016年棉(mian)(mian)花收購(gou)價(jia)(jia)格上調和(he)(he)棉(mian)(mian)地種(zhong)植補貼帶動(dong)(dong)下，農戶繼續減種(zhong)棉(mian)(mian)花勢頭得到遏制，種(zhong)子市(shi)場呈現(xian)好轉(zhuan)跡象，將有力緩解嚴重(zhong)的庫存壓(ya)力。當前安徽雜交棉(mian)(mian)種(zhong)子平(ping)均售價(jia)(jia)240.89元(yuan)/公斤，同比下降3.32%。湖南雜交棉(mian)(mian)種(zhong)子161.29元(yuan)/公斤，同比持平(ping)。山東(dong)常規棉(mian)(mian)20元(yuan)/公斤，主要銷(xiao)售品種(zhong)是中早(zao)熟、抗病、抗蟲(chong)、高產(chan)易摘的農興系列(lie)(lie)、魯(lu)棉(mian)(mian)研系列(lie)(lie)及河(he)北冀棉(mian)(mian)等系列(lie)(lie)。新疆(jiang)棉(mian)(mian)區(qu)市(shi)場目前尚未啟(qi)動(dong)(dong)。

     四、大豆

     受結構調(diao)整(zheng)政策、大(da)(da)豆(dou)玉(yu)米比價(jia)提高(gao)后玉(yu)米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)效益優(you)勢(shi)趨弱等因素影響，農(nong)民種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)大(da)(da)豆(dou)積(ji)極(ji)性明顯(xian)提高(gao)。東(dong)北大(da)(da)豆(dou)區(qu)(qu)，市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量充(chong)足(zu)，銷(xiao)售形勢(shi)較(jiao)好，銷(xiao)售進度明顯(xian)快于往(wang)年，價(jia)格上漲明顯(xian)，大(da)(da)部分種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)生產商手里已無存(cun)貨(huo)。鐮刀彎地區(qu)(qu)四(si)五積(ji)溫帶(dai)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)已經明朗，小規模種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)農(nong)戶(hu)(hu)開始(shi)改種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)豆(dou)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)銷(xiao)售市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)形成玉(yu)米冷(leng)清、大(da)(da)豆(dou)較(jiao)旺的(de)冰火(huo)兩重(zhong)(zhong)天景(jing)象。黃(huang)淮海夏大(da)(da)豆(dou)區(qu)(qu)，由于新(xin)(xin)《種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)法》對(dui)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)銷(xiao)售“一袋一碼”要(yao)求、企(qi)業需(xu)要(yao)重(zhong)(zhong)新(xin)(xin)設計包裝，大(da)(da)豆(dou)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)鋪貨(huo)緩慢，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)批發價(jia)格高(gao)于往(wang)年，農(nong)戶(hu)(hu)購(gou)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)積(ji)極(ji)性增(zeng)高(gao)，中熟、高(gao)產、抗倒伏、落(luo)黃(huang)性好、成熟不(bu)裂莢、適(shi)合機(ji)械化(hua)的(de)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)受到市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)青(qing)睞。

     五、花生與雜(za)糧雜(za)豆(dou)

     黃淮海區在花(hua)(hua)生種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)效益相(xiang)對較(jiao)高、部(bu)分(fen)玉(yu)米改種(zhong)(zhong)花(hua)(hua)生的(de)帶動(dong)下，花(hua)(hua)生種(zhong)(zhong)子市(shi)場(chang)活躍(yue)(yue)，種(zhong)(zhong)子需求量(liang)隨種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面積(ji)擴大(da)而(er)增加，春(chun)播種(zhong)(zhong)子零(ling)售價(jia)格同比去年(nian)小幅上升，夏(xia)播種(zhong)(zhong)子企業正在積(ji)極(ji)鋪貨，種(zhong)(zhong)子供應充(chong)足，預計零(ling)售價(jia)格穩中有增。山西、陜西、內蒙、寧夏(xia)等(deng)區域，優質雜糧雜豆面積(ji)有明(ming)顯上升的(de)勢(shi)頭，其種(zhong)(zhong)子市(shi)場(chang)比較(jiao)活躍(yue)(yue)。