2017年(nian)春(chun)季市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)在(zai)糧(liang)價低(di)迷和農戶(hu)對種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)結(jie)構調整思量(liang)中徐緩(huan)開(kai)啟。截(jie)至2月24日全國種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)鋪貨和市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)零售(shou)終端信(xin)息(xi)觀察(cha)點顯示(shi)，種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)供應充(chong)足，銷售(shou)品種(zhong)(zhong)多，作物(wu)分化明顯，價格漲跌不一。預計在(zai)農產品價格形成(cheng)機(ji)制(zhi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)化和種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)總(zong)體供大于求的背景(jing)下，種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)競爭(zheng)將比去年更(geng)加激烈，中后期(qi)價格可能出現一定波動。

     一、玉(yu)米(mi)

     非(fei)優勢區面積調減趨勢明顯，優勢區觀(guan)望氣氛濃厚(hou)，市場低迷，價格(ge)總體(ti)走(zou)低，種子供過于(yu)求。

     市場(chang)啟(qi)動晚、銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)進度慢。東華(hua)北和(he)(he)黃(huang)淮海(hai)區，農民對調整種植作物猶(you)豫觀望，購種時期推遲，盡管種子(zi)企業(ye)、經銷(xiao)(xiao)商(shang)和(he)(he)零售(shou)商(shang)推銷(xiao)(xiao)力度大于(yu)往年(nian)，種子(zi)銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)終端市場(chang)依(yi)然(ran)冷(leng)清，目前種子(zi)入(ru)戶(hu)率不足(zu)30%，明(ming)顯滯后(hou)往年(nian)。

     供遠大于求、品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)數(shu)量多(duo)。種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子有效供給總量在(zai)20億(yi)(yi)公斤(jin)以上，遠遠超(chao)過(guo)11億(yi)(yi)公斤(jin)的用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)需求。市場上新審定(ding)和同一生態區引種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)數(shu)量猛增，銷(xiao)售品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)總數(shu)高(gao)達1500多(duo)個，農民選種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)難度加大，市場競爭激(ji)烈。

     品種(zhong)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)差異大(da)、區域分化明(ming)(ming)顯。品種(zhong)間價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)分化較大(da)，以(yi)公(gong)斤計(ji)量的種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)15-70元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤、以(yi)袋計(ji)量畝(mu)用種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)30-80元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/袋。東華(hua)北春(chun)玉米區，受玉米低價(jia)收購(gou)影響，種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)下(xia)滑趨勢明(ming)(ming)顯。在(zai)剛啟動(dong)的吉(ji)林種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市場(chang)上，一些(xie)經(jing)銷(xiao)商為降低庫存、盤活(huo)資(zi)金(jin)進行甩貨，對(dui)一些(xie)品牌品種(zhong)銷(xiao)售價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)形成壓制(zhi)。還處在(zai)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)鋪貨階(jie)段的黑龍江，種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)有20%-30%的下(xia)滑幅(fu)度。遼寧早熟(shu)區種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)為30.34元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤，同比(bi)下(xia)降6.90%。市場(chang)主導品種(zhong)先玉335、京科968、鄭單958，種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)分別為57元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/袋·畝(mu)、40元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/袋·畝(mu)、35元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/袋·畝(mu)，均出現5%-10%的下(xia)滑幅(fu)度。西(xi)南春(chun)玉米區，種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)銷(xiao)售相對(dui)活(huo)躍。四(si)川、重慶(qing)、云南種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)分別為31.13元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤、35.82元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤、29.94元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤，同比(bi)基(ji)本持平。

     二、水稻

     種(zhong)子市場啟動(dong)正常、運行(xing)平穩，但雜交稻(dao)種(zhong)子中(zhong)后期可能出現價格下滑波(bo)動(dong)。

     常(chang)規稻(dao)(dao)。北方(fang)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)種(zhong)(zhong)子零(ling)售(shou)終(zhong)端市場種(zhong)(zhong)子供應充(chong)足，企業(ye)鋪貨基本穩定，鋪貨進度與去年同期基本一(yi)致，預計有(you)(you)(you)水(shui)源等條件的(de)玉米主產區(qu)，農(nong)民將設法改種(zhong)(zhong)水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)，因此(ci)水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)面積將有(you)(you)(you)所(suo)擴大，種(zhong)(zhong)子市場價(jia)格將穩中(zhong)有(you)(you)(you)升(sheng)。南方(fang)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)，對早熟、直播及優(you)質(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)子特別(bie)是糯(nuo)質(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)的(de)購買需(xu)求旺(wang)盛，品(pin)質(zhi)(zhi)優(you)良(liang)的(de)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)批發價(jia)格有(you)(you)(you)所(suo)上(shang)升(sheng)，普通品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)略(lve)有(you)(you)(you)降(jiang)價(jia)。在零(ling)售(shou)市場活躍的(de)廣西，優(you)質(zhi)(zhi)常(chang)規稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)子價(jia)格28.41元/公(gong)斤，同比增長11.35%

     雜交(jiao)稻。零(ling)售(shou)終(zhong)端市(shi)場如期開始啟動。種子(zi)(zi)供(gong)應(ying)充足，可供(gong)種子(zi)(zi)總量(liang)3.6億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，超(chao)過2.4～2.5億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)的(de)需求量(liang)。種子(zi)(zi)價(jia)格基(ji)本(ben)穩定(ding)，平(ping)均(jun)售(shou)價(jia)63.84元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)。華南(nan)早稻區，由于去年大(da)田種植受災(zai)補種，企業庫(ku)存壓(ya)力明顯減少，加(jia)之(zhi)種子(zi)(zi)生(sheng)產成本(ben)持(chi)(chi)續上(shang)漲，種子(zi)(zi)平(ping)均(jun)售(shou)價(jia)68.52元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，穩中略增1.04%。中稻區，種子(zi)(zi)平(ping)均(jun)售(shou)價(jia)90.89元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，同比(bi)基(ji)本(ben)持(chi)(chi)平(ping)。其中，福建97.70元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，同比(bi)增長2.56%；廣西84.5元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)、湖南(nan)81.69元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)、四川91.77元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)、云南(nan)71.91元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)、重(zhong)慶92.97元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，同比(bi)持(chi)(chi)平(ping)；安徽95.82元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，同比(bi)下(xia)降2.37%。預計隨著中晚稻種子(zi)(zi)市(shi)場的(de)活躍，雜交(jiao)稻種子(zi)(zi)將(jiang)有小(xiao)幅波(bo)動，主要原因是中晚稻雜交(jiao)種子(zi)(zi)2.8億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)的(de)供(gong)應(ying)量(liang)遠大(da)于需求量(liang)及優質常規稻替代(dai)雜交(jiao)稻增加(jia)趨勢將(jiang)壓(ya)減雜交(jiao)稻種子(zi)(zi)銷(xiao)售(shou)。

     三(san)、棉(mian)花

     長江和黃河(he)流域棉(mian)(mian)區(qu)種子終(zhong)端(duan)銷售(shou)市場零(ling)星啟動，在2016年(nian)棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)收購價(jia)格上調和棉(mian)(mian)地種植(zhi)補(bu)貼帶動下，農戶繼續減種棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)勢頭得到遏(e)制(zhi)，種子市場呈現好轉(zhuan)跡(ji)象(xiang)，將有力緩解嚴重的庫存壓力。當(dang)前安徽雜交(jiao)棉(mian)(mian)種子平均(jun)售(shou)價(jia)240.89元/公斤，同比(bi)下降(jiang)3.32%。湖(hu)南雜交(jiao)棉(mian)(mian)種子161.29元/公斤，同比(bi)持(chi)平。山東(dong)常規棉(mian)(mian)20元/公斤，主要(yao)銷售(shou)品種是中早熟、抗病、抗蟲、高產易摘(zhai)的農興(xing)系(xi)列(lie)(lie)、魯棉(mian)(mian)研(yan)系(xi)列(lie)(lie)及河(he)北(bei)冀棉(mian)(mian)等系(xi)列(lie)(lie)。新疆(jiang)棉(mian)(mian)區(qu)市場目(mu)前尚未啟動。

     四、大豆(dou)

     受結構調(diao)整政策、大豆玉(yu)米(mi)比(bi)價(jia)(jia)提(ti)高后玉(yu)米(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)植效益(yi)優勢趨弱等因素(su)影響，農(nong)民(min)種(zhong)(zhong)植大豆積極(ji)(ji)性(xing)明(ming)顯提(ti)高。東北大豆區，市場(chang)種(zhong)(zhong)量充足，銷(xiao)售形勢較好，銷(xiao)售進度明(ming)顯快于往(wang)年，價(jia)(jia)格上漲明(ming)顯，大部(bu)分種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)生產商手(shou)里(li)已(yi)無(wu)存貨(huo)。鐮刀彎地區四五積溫(wen)帶市場(chang)已(yi)經明(ming)朗，小規模種(zhong)(zhong)植農(nong)戶開始改(gai)種(zhong)(zhong)大豆，種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)銷(xiao)售市場(chang)形成(cheng)玉(yu)米(mi)冷(leng)清、大豆較旺的(de)冰火兩重天景(jing)象。黃(huang)淮海夏(xia)大豆區，由于新《種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)法》對種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)銷(xiao)售“一袋一碼”要求、企業需要重新設計(ji)包裝，大豆種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市場(chang)鋪貨(huo)緩慢，種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)批發價(jia)(jia)格高于往(wang)年，農(nong)戶購種(zhong)(zhong)積極(ji)(ji)性(xing)增高，中熟、高產、抗倒伏(fu)、落黃(huang)性(xing)好、成(cheng)熟不(bu)裂(lie)莢、適合機械(xie)化(hua)的(de)品種(zhong)(zhong)受到市場(chang)青(qing)睞(lai)。

     五(wu)、花生(sheng)與雜(za)糧雜(za)豆

     黃淮海區在(zai)花生(sheng)種(zhong)植效益相對(dui)較高、部分玉米改(gai)種(zhong)花生(sheng)的(de)帶動下(xia)，花生(sheng)種(zhong)子(zi)市(shi)場活躍(yue)(yue)，種(zhong)子(zi)需求量隨種(zhong)植面積(ji)擴(kuo)大(da)而增加，春播(bo)種(zhong)子(zi)零(ling)(ling)售(shou)價格(ge)同比(bi)去年小幅上升(sheng)，夏播(bo)種(zhong)子(zi)企業正在(zai)積(ji)極鋪貨，種(zhong)子(zi)供應(ying)充足，預計零(ling)(ling)售(shou)價格(ge)穩中有增。山西(xi)(xi)、陜西(xi)(xi)、內蒙、寧夏等區域(yu)，優質雜(za)糧雜(za)豆面積(ji)有明顯上升(sheng)的(de)勢頭(tou)，其種(zhong)子(zi)市(shi)場比(bi)較活躍(yue)(yue)。